Estudios Económicos

Grandes projetos, mercado de trabalho e condições de renda e pobreza de regiões impactadas: uma análise do complexo petroquímico do Rio de Janeiro (COMPERJ)

Dentre os diversos projetos industriais de grande porte em curso no país, o Complexo Petroquímico do Rio de Janeiro (COMPERJ) destaca-se como o maior investimento industrial da Petrobras em andamento no país, com impactos potenciais sobre o mercado de trabalho local extremamente relevantes. O artigo estrutura-se de modo a atingir dois objetivos. O primeiro deles, de natureza mais geral, compreende a caracterização do contexto socioeconômico da região impactada pelo COMPERJ, de forma identificar aspectos que constituem estímulos e entraves ao processo de desenvolvimento local, a partir dos impactos dos investimentos previstos para a região. O segundo objetivo, de natureza mais específica, contempla uma análise dos determinantes dos níveis de emprego e pobreza na região impactada pelo COMPERJ, com base numa pesquisa primária de caráter domiciliar e no tratamento econométrico das informações levantadas.

Among the various large industrial projects currently underway in the country, the Rio de Janeiro Petrochemical Complex (COMPERJ) stands out as the biggest investment in the history of Petrobras in progress in the country, with potential impacts on the local labor market that seem to be extremely relevant. The article is structured to achieve two goals. The first one, of more general nature, comprises the characterization of the socioeconomic context of the region impacted by the COMPERJ, in order to identify aspects that constitute stimuli and barriers to local development process, from the impacts of investments to the region. The second objective, which is more specific, includes an analysis of the determinants of employment and poverty levels in the region impacted by COMPERJ, on the basis of a field research with households of the region. Data raised during the field research was analyzed using an econometric model.

Devaluaciones reales y aceleraciones inflacionarias

Las economías abiertas pueden enfrentar un trade-off entre aumentos en el tipo de cambio real (TCR) y cambios en la inflación para horizontes relevantes. Se aplica una metodología a un panel mensual de 98 países para el período 1970-2004 identificando episodios de incrementos "significativos y duraderos" del TCR, clasificándolos en "aceleradores" o "no aceleradores" según conlleven cambios apreciables en la tasa de inflación. Se aprecia elevada heterogeneidad en la respuesta inflacionaria entre regiones y entre países emergentes y avanzados. La probabilidad de episodios "aceleradores" (i) se incrementa a mayor inflación inicial, (ii) no resulta influida por la brecha de producto, (iii) disminuye con la presencia de regímenes de Inflation Targeting, y (iv) disminuye a mayor grado de "anclaje cambiario" posterior al episodio.

Open economies may experience trade-offs between increments in the real exchange rate (RER) and inflation accelerations lasting throughout relevant time horizons. A methodology is applied on a monthly panel comprising 98 countries during 1970-2014. Episodes of "significant and extended" increases of the RER are identified, classifying them as "accelerating" or "non-accelerating" according to inflation dynamics. The inflationary response of the regions under study is highly heterogenous, as well as between emerging and advanced economies. The probability of an "accelerating" episode (i) increases the higher the initial inflation rate, (ii) is not affected by the output gap, (iii) diminishes under Inflation Targeting regimes, and (iv) diminishes the stronger is the nominal exchange rate anchor after the devaluation.

Empirical search and characterization of contemporaneity using breaks and regime switching

This paper describes a technique to determine the contemporaneity of two economic events. It is also possible to determine some characteristics of the contemporaneity, as a descriptive stage previous to causality analysis and model estimations. As an illustration, a case of contemporaneity between news and volatility in financial markets is shown. The main result of the exercise is a Laffer curve relationship between corruption and volatility given news.

El presente trabajo describe una nueva técnica para determinar la contemporaneidad de dos eventos económicos. Luego de ello es posible determinar algunas características de la contemporaneidad, siendo esta metodología un análisis descriptivo previo a considerar causalidad y estimar un modelo. Como ilustración, analizamos un caso de contemporaneidad entre noticias y volatilidad en mercados financieros. El principal resultado es una curva de Laffer para representar la relación entre corrupción y volatilidad dadas las noticias.

Rotación de cultivos en la región pampeana: volviendo a las fuentes

Debido a los cambios en la actividad agropecuaria, palabras y conceptos, otrora estables, van mutando. La "rotación de cultivos" es una Buena Práctica Agrícola (BPA) emblemática en sistemas mixtos. El objetivo de este trabajo es rescatar su concepto agronómico, propiciando su adopción en escenarios de desarrollo local y cuidado del ambiente. Se presenta un esquema que diferencia monocultivo, secuencia, pradera y rotación, con sus respectivos impactos sobre la calidad del suelo. Las tecnologías nunca son neutrales y para calificarlas hay que ubicar lo agrario dentro de lo nacional/global, en períodos de tiempo abarcativos. La decantación de técnicas de procesos y de insumos es parte del diseño de sistemas y de la sustentabilidad de los territorios.

Due to the changes in agricultural activity, words and concepts that used to be stable are now mutating. "Crop rotation" is a Good Agricultural Practice (GAP), emblematic in mixed systems. The objective of this work is to rescue its agronomic concept, favoring its adoption in local development and environmental care scenarios. A scheme that differentiates monoculture, crop sequence, meadow and rotation, with their respective impacts on soil quality, is presented. Technologies are never neutral, and in order to qualify them, it is necessary to locate the agrarian question within the national / global context in encompassing time periods. The decantation of both process and input techniques is part of the systems design and the sustainability of the territories.