Estudios Económicos

Progresión y escalonamiento en el consumo de drogas: evidencia para Argentina

El objetivo de este trabajo es estudiar, para Argentina, la progresión en el consumo de drogas que se inicia con el consumo de drogas legales y avanza hacia el consumo de marihuana, cocaína y otras drogas ilícitas. Utilizando la ENPreCoSP del 2011, se analiza la relación entre el consumo de alcohol y tabaco y su edad de inicio con el consumo de marihuana incluyendo variables de propensión y acceso. A su vez, se estudia la relación entre el consumo de marihuana y su edad de inicio con el consumo de otras drogas. Los resultados obtenidos van en línea con la teoría de escalonamiento, el consumo de drogas legales y su inicio más temprano tienen una relación positiva con la probabilidad de consumir marihuana, y el consumo de esta última también se relaciona directamente con la probabilidad de consumir otras drogas ilícitas.

The objective of this paper is to study, for Argentina, the progression in the consumption of drugs that begins with the consumption of legal drugs, such as tobacco and alcohol, and advances to the consumption of marijuana, cocaine, and other illicit drugs. The relation between the consumption of alcohol and tobacco and their age initiation and the probability of consuming marijuana are estimated including propensity and access characteristics. Furthermore, the relationship between marijuana use and its age of onset with the consumption of other drugs is studied. Data from ENPreCoSP of 2011 is used. The results obtained are consistent with the staggering theory. The consumption of legal drugs and their early use have a positive relationship with the probability of consuming marijuana, and also the consumption of marijuana shows the same relationship with the probability of consuming other illicit drugs.

Giving with one hand and taking away with the other

This study analyzes the impact of fiscal policy on income inequality for the Brazilian states over the period 2004-2014. Using the GMM system, we find robust evidence that, while increases in total expenditure, spending with social assistance and security, and expenditure on infrastructure reduce inequality, total and capital revenues and expenditures related to public debt increase inequality. Thus, the net effect of fiscal policy on inequality may not be positive mainly because the tax system is still very regressive and many of the resources are spent on debt. Therefore, the discussion of how to determine and qualify social spending levels in Brazil, which are necessary to fight poverty and reduce social and income inequalities, is directly related to the revision of the tax collection system.

Este estudo analisa o impacto da política fiscal sobre a desigualdade de renda para os estados brasileiros no período 2004-2014. Utilizando system GMM, encontramos evidências robustas de que, enquanto o aumento no gasto total, gastos com assistência social e segurança, e gastos em infra-estrutura reduzem a desigualdade, as receitas totais e de capital e os gastos relacionados à dívida pública aumentam a desigualdade. Assim, o efeito líquido da política fiscal sobre a desigualdade pode não ser positivo, principalmente porque o sistema tributário ainda é muito regressivo e muitos dos recursos são gastos em dívidas. Portanto, a discussão sobre como determinar e qualificar os níveis de gastos sociais no Brasil, necessários para combater a pobreza e reduzir as desigualdades sociais e de renda, está diretamente relacionada à revisão do sistema de arrecadação de impostos.

Technological diffusion dynamics in developed and developing economies: an analysis for the Information and Communication Technologies

Satisfação laboral e sindicalização: uma análise para o Brasil

This paper tests the hypothesis that the job satisfaction is affected by the choice to be unionized. To do so, variables of satisfaction of the Supplement of Labor Relations and Trade Unions of the 2015 National Household Sample Survey of are used. The methods used are the binomial probit, ordered probit and seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). The results show that, in general, unionization does not affect satisfaction, however, it increases satisfaction with food aid, the process of professional training and the promotion of equal opportunities, the latter indicating that unions can increase equity. This paper is the first to test the relationship between trade unions and job satisfaction in Brazil.

O presente artigo testa a hiptese de a satisfao laboral ser afetada pela escolha por ser sindicalizado. Para tanto, so utilizadas variveis de satisfao do Suplemento de Relaes Trabalhistas e Sindicatos da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domiclios de 2015. Os mtodos empregados so o probit binomial, probit ordenado e o Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR). Os resultados mostram que, em geral, a sindicalizao no afeta a satisfao, porm, aumenta a satisfao em relao ao auxlio alimentao, ao processo de capacitao profissional e promoo de igualdade de oportunidades, este ltimo indica que os sindicatos podem aumentar a equidade. O artigo o primeiro a testar a relao entre os sindicatos e a satisfao laboral para o Brasil.

Una evaluación del pass-through en la Argentina usando funciones impulso respuesta de cuantiles multivariados

Este trabajo implementa modelos econométricos de cuantiles multivariados para evaluar la heterogeneidad del pass-through del tipo de cambio a precios y producto en la Argentina 2004-2018. El nuevo análisis revela heterogeneidad en las respuestas ante un shock cambiario. Primero, los efectos de la media, calculados con un modelo VAR en la media, no resultan adecuados para el producto y la inflación. De hecho, los efectos calculados de esta manera se condicen con cuantiles extremos en el análisis propuesto en este trabajo. Segundo, los efectos de pass-through usando el tipo de cambio oficial sobre el producto y la inflación dependen mayormente de los cuantiles de cada variable y no parece haber efectos cruzados. Es decir, los efectos sobre el producto varían con los cuantiles del producto, pero no de la inflación. En el mismo sentido, los efectos sobre la inflación no dependen de los cuantiles del producto y sí de la misma inflación. Existen efectos cruzados, sin embargo, cuando usamos el tipo de cambio blue. En términos del pass-through a precios se observa que el traslado es mayor (menor) para menores (mayores) cuantiles de la inflación. Tercero, tanto el producto como la inflación dependen de los cuantiles del tipo de cambio. Esto significa que ciertas dinámicas altas del tipo de cambio pueden producir dinámicas de alto pass-through (negativo para el producto, positivo para la inflación).

This article implements multivariate quantiles econometric models to evaluate the heterogeneity in price and product pass-through in Argentina 2004-2018. The novel analysis reveals response heterogeneity after an exchange rate shock. First, the mean effects computed using standard VAR techniques on the mean are not adequate for product and inflation. In fact, the effects computed this way are similar to those in extreme quantiles as estimated in this paper. Second, pass-through effects using the official exchange rate on inflation and product mainly depend on each variables' quantiles, and there are no cross effects. That is, the product effects vary with the product quantiles, but not those of inflation. Similarly, the effects on inflation do not depend on product but on inflation only quantiles. There are cross effects, however, when using the unofficial exchange rate. The pass-through effect on prices is higher (lower) for low (high) inflation quantiles. Third, both product and inflation depend on the exchange rate quantiles. Thus certain exchange rate dynamics may produce high pass-through dynamics (negative for product, positive for inflation).

Retenciones con tipo de cambio flexible

Habitualmente, cuando se analiza el efecto que tiene la implantación de retenciones a las exportaciones se lo hace suponiendo implícitamente que existe un tipo de cambio fijo. En esta nota se analiza el caso en que el tipo de cambio es flexible. Se demuestra que la retención se traslada en mayor o menor medida al tipo de cambio. Solo en los casos extremos en que la demanda fuera infinitamente elástica o que la oferta fuera perfectamente inelástica la retención recaerá totalmente sobre los oferentes.

Usually, when analyzing the effect of export taxes it is implicitly assumed that there is a fixed exchange rate. This note discusses the case in which the exchange rate is flexible. It shows that in such a case the export tax is to a greater or lesser extent passed on to the exchange rate. Only in the extreme cases when demand is infinitely elastic or supply is perfectly inelastic the tax burden will fall entirely on the suppliers.