Resumo

FORNERO, Ricardo A.. Valor de proyectos de inversión con estimaciones probabilísticas y borrosas. Escr. Contab. Adm. [online]. 2012, vol.3, n.1, pp. 5-81. ISSN 1853-2055.

Valuation of an investment project or a business is usually done considering a risk adjusted discount rate, which compensates for the uncertainty that affects the estimated cash flow. Commonly, probabilistic or fuzzy techniques are used to reflect the uncertainty propagation of the business' primary variables with which the cash-flow is estimated. Also, usually a distinction between aleatory uncertainty (or random variability) and imprecision (or epistemic uncertainty) is made. This paper explains the methodological variants to obtain a point value estimate, or an interval value estimate. Particular attention is made to the situations in which probabilistic value or fuzzy value can be determined, in a way consistent with a valuation that uses a risk-adjusted discount rate.

Palavras-chave : Valuation; Monte Carlo simulation; Fuzzy numbers.